I have to admit, despite being an avowed political junkie, I didn't catch all the similarities between Gov. Brownback backing Gov. Perry for president and Gov. Sebelius backing President Obama.
It is very likely Gov. Brownback is aiming for a spot in a Perry administration (although considering Gov. Perry's recent debate performance and the Florida straw poll results, that seems a little less likely today), but I wonder to what ends. However, I do think Brownback might prefer to be Governor for a little bit longer. When appointed to the cabinet, Sebelius had served as Governor for a little more than 6 years. Brownback on the other hand would have put in about half that.
Another reason I don't think Brownback would be so quick to jump ship is that he has had considerably fewer obstacles than Sebelius’ two and a half terms. Brownback has had super majorities in both chambers that have been happy to pass his agenda. If Perry wins in 2012, it is doubtful the national climate will be hospitable for Democrats. Perhaps they can chip away at the Republican majorities since 2010 was something of a high water mark for the GOP, but it is doubtful they can capture either house next year. Many Republican state executives would envy Brownback's position.
But let's say Brownback tires quickly of his power once his agenda is accomplished, or the Democrats pull an amazing comeback in Kansas even as Obama loses to Perry. What cabinet position could Brownback be hoping for?
Secretary of Agriculture seems the most likely spot given Kansas' agriculture based economy and Brownback's past experience as a state Ag-Sec. Secretary of the Interior also makes sense for the same reasons. But how desirable are those positions? Cushy, sure, but if Brownback's hoping to build a national profile and run for the Presidency in 2020, Secretary of Agriculture is hardly the place.
Gov. Brownback is most known as a right-wing crusader for social issues. It's hard to see any cabinet positions as a perfect fit for that political mold. Decades ago, Brownback was an attorney, so perhaps he is hoping to be Attorney General. That’s certainly more high profile than the Agriculture or Interior departments, but it's sure to be a competitive slot. I'd think someone like Virginia Attorney General and darling of the right Ken Cuccinelli would be a more likely choice. Or maybe one of the many state Attorney General's who've filed lawsuits against Obama's health care law.
Perhaps the cabinet isn't Brownback's ultimate goal. Perry isn't likely to pick another white, male, social conservative to be his Vice President when he has a diverse selection of relatively fresh faces in the GOP like Florida Sen. Rubio, and Govs. Martinez and Sandoval. He also might want to temper his radical image with a more moderate, Blue state Governor like Chris Christie.
Maybe Brownback is hoping for a more... permanent position? It's very likely at least one Supreme Court justice will be retiring in the next few years. Gov. Brownback probably isn't at the top of most Republicans list (judges are usually the first choice for the Supreme Court), but it's not out of the question to pick Senators and Governors. The social conservative base would probably be ecstatic about a choice like Brownback. By committing to back Perry early and strongly, Brownback could be trying to put himself at the top of the list.
Should the Republican candidate fail to win this year, regardless of who the nominee is, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Brownback once again gunning for a cabinet position in 2016. That would perfectly match Sebelius' path, and without much left to do after being Governor, a cushy cabinet position will probably be exactly what Brownback wants.
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